2019 Gun Deer Final Numbers

Just released, 2019 vs. 2018: Total buck kill down 28.6%, total harvest down 24.9%.  Northern Forest region was the worst: buck kill down 39.5%, total harvest down 38.2%.

Post opening weekend quote: "In 2018, we held the earliest possible deer season followed by the latest possible season in 2019. This occurred between the 2012-13 and 2007-08 seasons as well, and we saw similar declines in opening weekend registration totals," said DNR big game ecologist Kevin Wallenfang. 

2012 antlered harvest: 119,469

2013 antlered harvest: 102,221, drop of 14.5%

2007 antlered harvest: 133,107

2008 antlered harvest: 103,845, drop of 22%

Yes, there were decreases if you only look at the variable as stated by DNR above.  Total harvest of 75,236 bucks in 2019 tells another story.  Even in the worst years, the total buck kill was down 25% on top of the decrease "due to a late start to the season."  The buck kill was down 19% from the lowest buck kill numbers in the last 13 years.  We are on a continued and readily apparent trend downward.

As I posted in another thread, pick the year and you get the same excuses from DNR: standing crops, no snow, late start date to season, and the best of all "lack of hunter effort."

Most of us had record snowfalls late in the season which has never been seen before.  The Winter Severity Index does not properly account for deep snow or extreme cold.  -1 degree counts the same as -30 degrees, and 18" of snow counts the same as 40" of snow according to their system.  I feel a lot of deer died last winter/spring, but we were told we had a record population and a moderate winter even though hundreds of barn roofs collapsed from all the snow.

Since we as hunters failed, and did not do our part to reduce this out of control population as DNR has told us about, I suspect DNR will offer more doe tags, more seasons, more weapons, and longer seasons since we all obviously are failing at hunting.  

I am guessing the number of licenses sold next year will drop even faster with the winter we are already having.  

"Yes OSD comparing the amount of deer crashes per Wisconsin county the year 2000 vs 2019 would be absolutely ridiculous oh wise one."

On second thought don't go back to sleep. Go directly to get help. Who said anything about car crashes. Surprisingly though I actually agree it can be a tool albeit a small one on a general assumption of the deer population. It is actually considered by the DNR

"However, two major things happened - explosion of predators (wolves and bobcats, bobcats appear to kill more bucks than previously believed according to the mortality study reports) and people started passing up 1.5 year old bucks.  The whole SAK model is now likely unreliable as the assumptions may not be/are no longer accurate.  Many questions: how does it affect the SAK when say 30% of hunters are not shooting 1.5 year old bucks anymore in the northwoods"

Houston we have lift-off. Finally somebody sees.

"It uses assumptions based on average buck age and buck kill very heavily." 

Partially correct in that the entire SAK is rooted in the buck harvest. However, it is not an average. The factor most critical is the yearling buck harvest as a percentage of that buck harvest. That ratio is then extrapolated to estimate the total number of bucks in the population. 

 "put me and a couple others on the payroll and we can figure out the details of drone deer population estimates. I wish someone helped me do my job for free if I failed at it for many years."

Which is it? 

"OSD sounds like you're still trying to poo poo the real drone deer pilot surveys? How many deer does SAK miss, since it isn't a real count, it's a theoretical count. "

Not at all just trying to understand the capabilities/time/cost/accuracy

"How really accurate is SAK at giving the age structure of deer? And the buck doe ratio? I don't believe very. We know how long an average deer lives and it's not very long in this state before it is killed by a hunter, car or predator.  Is age structure really super important," 

You should know that the SAK's accuracy is dependent on an accurate knowledge of the age structure which is why I suggested a larger sampling not the other way around.

OK that settles it Little Luck is in charge.....

A lot has changed since SAK started to be used in some states as far back as the 1960s I believe.  Started in Michigan.  It uses assumptions based on average buck age and buck kill very heavily.  When SAK started, it probably did a pretty good job of estimating a rough number of deer as one would expect a more stable non-hunter mortality and nobody ever thought of passing up a buck with an antler.

However, two major things happened - explosion of predators (wolves and bobcats, bobcats appear to kill more bucks than previously believed according to the mortality study reports) and people started passing up 1.5 year old bucks.  The whole SAK model is now likely unreliable as the assumptions may not be/are no longer accurate.  Many questions: how does it affect the SAK when say 30% of hunters are not shooting 1.5 year old bucks anymore in the northwoods, how does it affect SAK if different age classes of bucks are more vulnerable to predation (older bucks run down from the rut, young bucks with smaller body size, etc.).  I know DNR did a study near Winter trying to determine accurate buck recovery rates, but that is just a snapshot of one location and it would likely be too large of an undertaking to get reliable information for the northwoods.  I remember bobcats killing a surprising amount of bucks as sticking out to me in that study.  I also see more bobcats now than at any other time in my hunting career....let alone the ridiculously high number of wolves.

"Get a team of 4-5 going and pick random counties and do every square foot "

"OSD if our WDNR is increasing the Wisconsin deer herd in SAK counts by adding the amount of bucks passed for trophies of their choosing  that alone would explain why SAK is so inaccurate."

Please just go back to sleep. We already know how ridiculous you are. 

One last parting shot. How much have you studied the SAK and where do you see its short comings? For example how do you think trophy hunting effects the SAK?

Few more questions. How big of an area would a single drone flight cover? How long would it take? How would you keep from counting the same deer more than once or missing some. If doing thermal imagining could you discern between other animals on say a field edge. Aren't buck/doe kill ratios determined by available tags? Would it matter or are you just looking to determine the number of deer and the age structure/recruitment/sex ratio are not relevant? 

Yes, I'm old enough to have seen the explosion in deer numbers about when you started hunting and also well before. Shot quite a few bucks during both periods.

LL-What would you consider an adequate sample size of say FNB's county Florence. It contains 488 sq mi of land (not sure how much is considered range). Year after year comparisons would show trends but could also be a factor of changing landscape. Freshcut vs. mature growth as an example. When would you suggest as the best time to do a drone "audit". Would you be able to determine bucks from does? Oh, and I shot my first deer in '65. 

" I wasn’t complaining at all when we were killing up towards 2 bucks per square mile . "

When do you think that was?

"OSD you are completely correct on the one hunter per forty it’s probably more like one hunter per 2 forties up north but that’s still a hunter success rate of 12.5% "

Another guess or do you have some data to support that? Keep in mind there are 39000 square miles of deer range not in the northern forest. A hunter density of 13 psm would take up all but around 60k of the license holders. Its been my observations....(ya I know not data).....that hunters follow the doe tags. Yes, I know people hunt both, I also know the woods pretty much empties out after the first weekend.

I'm curious. Why are you only concerned only about the 9 day gun season and not the whole harvest?

Just came back from a snowmobile trip north of hwy 8, I saw some deer around the small towns, a few deer near farm fields that have standing corn, and parts of deer carcasses along the trails out away from them areas. Seems like deer yarding up would be an easy target for the wolves.

One last time and then you can go find someone else to ignore.

"What are your expert in all things thoughts on that independent thermal drone program Luck was suggesting ?"

First off what are you expecting to accomplish with this? How much of the 17000 square miles of the north would you like to survey with a drone. How many drones would be needed? Who would purchase them? How many people would be needed to be trained to operate them or would only professionals be involved.  Assuming this would be done in the winter, what areas would you target? Answer those.

 "I’d just have to guess at them of a minimum of one hunter per forty on a average ."

Really? So, the roughly 10 hunters psm average statewide are concentrated north of 64 to get up to 16 psm. Yep, I can see that with all the deer you say are "up nort". Or, like most of your "guesses" it is a Henry Aaron shot to left field.

How many bucks per square mile do you want FNB?  What would be an acceptable number for you and Little luck? Its hunting! Nothing is guaranteed and thats why its exciting because we don't know the outcome. I think some people on this site are kidding themselves if they think deer numbers anywhere are going to return to the numbers you saw in the early 2000's. That's never going to happen. SAK was fine when we were shooting big numbers for years in the early 2000's but now its junk? For sure the DNR has made some mistakes but the continual bashing of them and the alluded conspiracy that they want all the deer dead is laughable. What am I going to hear next? I heard from a guy at the bar who seemed pretty smart to me that they released Bigfoots to kill and eat the remaining deer. Probably true.... Here is a tip- Hunt where there deer are.

"If our WDNR double checked their SAK numbers with what they could see taking a drive ( or god forbid a walk ) around the neighborhood maybe we wouldn’t get to the point of record low buck kills in the Northwoods OSD"                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    I'd come back with the hundreds if not thousands of people that do just that throughout the state FNB but you would just say its more DNR lies so I won't bother. You've been spewing your ignorance at least back to 2009 I see. Its amazing there is a single deer left in the northwoods after 11 years based on your "observations".

Ya, FNB, but BSH's article would be a great argument you could use for the need for more deer. Heck you might even see one without your bait pile. 

Don't matter, I'm done putting facts out there for you to dismiss for the simple reason you can't see any deer on the road.