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2019 Gun Deer Final Numbers

12/3/19 @ 12:08 PM
ORIGNAL POST
JC-Wisconsin
User since 4/1/05

Just released, 2019 vs. 2018: Total buck kill down 28.6%, total harvest down 24.9%.  Northern Forest region was the worst: buck kill down 39.5%, total harvest down 38.2%.

Post opening weekend quote: "In 2018, we held the earliest possible deer season followed by the latest possible season in 2019. This occurred between the 2012-13 and 2007-08 seasons as well, and we saw similar declines in opening weekend registration totals," said DNR big game ecologist Kevin Wallenfang. 

2012 antlered harvest: 119,469

2013 antlered harvest: 102,221, drop of 14.5%

2007 antlered harvest: 133,107

2008 antlered harvest: 103,845, drop of 22%

Yes, there were decreases if you only look at the variable as stated by DNR above.  Total harvest of 75,236 bucks in 2019 tells another story.  Even in the worst years, the total buck kill was down 25% on top of the decrease "due to a late start to the season."  The buck kill was down 19% from the lowest buck kill numbers in the last 13 years.  We are on a continued and readily apparent trend downward.

As I posted in another thread, pick the year and you get the same excuses from DNR: standing crops, no snow, late start date to season, and the best of all "lack of hunter effort."

Most of us had record snowfalls late in the season which has never been seen before.  The Winter Severity Index does not properly account for deep snow or extreme cold.  -1 degree counts the same as -30 degrees, and 18" of snow counts the same as 40" of snow according to their system.  I feel a lot of deer died last winter/spring, but we were told we had a record population and a moderate winter even though hundreds of barn roofs collapsed from all the snow.

Since we as hunters failed, and did not do our part to reduce this out of control population as DNR has told us about, I suspect DNR will offer more doe tags, more seasons, more weapons, and longer seasons since we all obviously are failing at hunting.  

I am guessing the number of licenses sold next year will drop even faster with the winter we are already having.  

DISPLAYING 1 TO 10 OF 418 POSTS
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TODAY @ 10:55 AM
olswampdog
User since 10/6/04

"Yes OSD comparing the amount of deer crashes per Wisconsin county the year 2000 vs 2019 would be absolutely ridiculous oh wise one."

On second thought don't go back to sleep. Go directly to get help. Who said anything about car crashes. Surprising though I actually agree it can be a tool albeit a small one on a general assumption of the deer population. It is actually considered by the DNR

 

TODAY @ 10:51 AM
olswampdog
User since 10/6/04

"However, two major things happened - explosion of predators (wolves and bobcats, bobcats appear to kill more bucks than previously believed according to the mortality study reports) and people started passing up 1.5 year old bucks.  The whole SAK model is now likely unreliable as the assumptions may not be/are no longer accurate.  Many questions: how does it affect the SAK when say 30% of hunters are not shooting 1.5 year old bucks anymore in the northwoods"

Houston we have lift-off. Finally somebody sees.

TODAY @ 10:49 AM
olswampdog
User since 10/6/04

 "put me and a couple others on the payroll and we can figure out the details of drone deer population estimates. I wish someone helped me do my job for free if I failed at it for many years."

Which is it? 

"OSD sounds like you're still trying to poo poo the real drone deer pilot surveys? How many deer does SAK miss, since it isn't a real count, it's a theoretical count. "

Not at all just trying to understand the capabilities/time/cost/accuracy

"How really accurate is SAK at giving the age structure of deer? And the buck doe ratio? I don't believe very. We know how long an average deer lives and it's not very long in this state before it is killed by a hunter, car or predator.  Is age structure really super important," 

You should know that the SAK's accuracy is dependent on an accurate knowledge of the age structure which is why I suggested a larger sampling not the other way around.

TODAY @ 10:27 AM
Farnorthbadger
User since 12/7/13

No let’s give KW more money and more employees to do MORE SAK like our resident deer management genius OSD recommends. 

TODAY @ 10:01 AM
Swamp buck
User since 1/23/09

OK that settles it Little Luck is in charge.....

TODAY @ 9:24 AM
JC-Wisconsin
User since 4/1/05

A lot has changed since SAK started to be used in some states as far back as the 1960s I believe.  Started in Michigan.  It uses assumptions based on average buck age and buck kill very heavily.  When SAK started, it probably did a pretty good job of estimating a rough number of deer as one would expect a more stable non-hunter mortality and nobody ever thought of passing up a buck with an antler.

However, two major things happened - explosion of predators (wolves and bobcats, bobcats appear to kill more bucks than previously believed according to the mortality study reports) and people started passing up 1.5 year old bucks.  The whole SAK model is now likely unreliable as the assumptions may not be/are no longer accurate.  Many questions: how does it affect the SAK when say 30% of hunters are not shooting 1.5 year old bucks anymore in the northwoods, how does it affect SAK if different age classes of bucks are more vulnerable to predation (older bucks run down from the rut, young bucks with smaller body size, etc.).  I know DNR did a study near Winter trying to determine accurate buck recovery rates, but that is just a snapshot of one location and it would likely be too large of an undertaking to get reliable information for the northwoods.  I remember bobcats killing a surprising amount of bucks as sticking out to me in that study.  I also see more bobcats now than at any other time in my hunting career....let alone the ridiculously high number of wolves.


TODAY @ 8:54 AM
Farnorthbadger
User since 12/7/13

Yes OSD comparing the amount of deer crashes per Wisconsin county the year 2000 vs 2019 would be absolutely ridiculous oh wise one. 

TODAY @ 8:53 AM
LittleLuck
User since 2/16/17

OSD sounds like you're still trying to poo poo the real drone deer pilot surveys? How many deer does SAK miss, since it isn't a real count, it's a theoretical count. I have studied SAK a lot especially years ago when I starting seeing  it wasn't even close and questioned the dnr. Shortcomings include predation isn't built into the formula enough, fawn recruitment can be way off, aging can be subjective and inaccurate to name a few. The dnr has been constantly been trying to tweak and build fudge factors into SAK for years to no avail. Get rid of it. The whole idea of the CDACs was to look at other metrics and get rid of SAK The drone can cover a large area in a fairly short amount of time from what I am told and you can program it with a computer to fly an autopilot any route or pattern. It is recording and saving the video so you can go back and look at it. I was told you can tell different animals. How really accurate is SAK at giving the age structure of deer? And the buck doe ratio? I don't believe very. We know how long an average deer lives and it's not very long in this state before it is killed by a hunter, car or predator.  Is age structure really super important,  maybe not as important as thought to be. Tell you what tell Kevin Wallenfang and his cronies to put me and a couple others on the payroll and we can figure out the details of drone deer population estimates. I wish someone helped me do my job for free if I failed at it for many years. Oh yeah I likely wouldn't have a job if I was failing for many years at my job. I have the same degree, background as dnr people do. The only profession you can be wrong as often as Keving Wallenfang and still have a job is a meteorologist. 

TODAY @ 8:42 AM
olswampdog
User since 10/6/04

"Get a team of 4-5 going and pick random counties and do every square foot "

"OSD if our WDNR is increasing the Wisconsin deer herd in SAK counts by adding the amount of bucks passed for trophies of their choosing  that alone would explain why SAK is so inaccurate."

Please just go back to sleep. We already know how ridiculous you are. 

TODAY @ 7:47 AM
Farnorthbadger
User since 12/7/13

OSD if our WDNR is increasing the Wisconsin deer herd in SAK counts by adding the amount of bucks passed for trophies of their choosing  that alone would explain why SAK is so inaccurate. Using that metric alone would allow them to essentially set the deer population wherever they’d like without being anywhere near accurate to what is actually the number on the ground. 

DISPLAYING 1 TO 10 OF 418 POSTS
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